Category Archives: Cheltenham festival 2016
Another informative run from Don Cossack today. He has a very awkward action, especially behind where both feet come out almost like a breast-stroking swimmer – he tends to do it more with his off-hind. I suspect it’s this action that makes him tilt his head quite often (much more noticeable rounding bends, or when initially trying to pick up under pressure). His ears go one way, his nose the opposite. At Kempton his nose went left, at Aintree it went right. His long stride too makes it very difficult for him to put in a short one; he can do it, but it tends to break his rhythm and lose him ground. He also jumps quite flat at times, and I think he’s going to need an awful lot of luck at Cheltenham to win a Gold Cup.
He’s a horse I’ve always liked, and I backed him to win the Betfair Million (he did not run in leg 1). But the more I see of him, the more inclined I am to keep my cash in my pocket.
He has a mighty engine, but that action looks even more awkward coming down the hill at Cheltenham. All in all, I think he’s going to find things happening too quickly for him. It’s highly unlikely he’ll get into a rhythm, and he’ll probably belt at least one, and need scrubbing along. I don’t think headgear will make a jot of difference. He strikes me as a most honest horse, and not at all lazy; it’s just that when something happens that requires a quick move from him, he cannot make it; he’s just too big and gangly.
It’s not just errors that cause him problems. When Vautour took it up in the King George and raised the pace, Don Cossack could not go with them and got shuffled back. That pace increase happened as they went into a bend, which disadvantaged him further.
He’ll be a place lay for me in the Gold Cup where I suspect young Cooper will be aboard Don Poli.
UPDATE: 11 January 2016 If you are a latecomer to this post, be aware that the trainer says that although PZ will get a Ryanair entry, he will return to hurdles on his next outing.
I’m afraid that since I tipped him, he’s managed to tip himself up – twice, and even if he runs in the Ryanair, the last thing you’d call him now is a value bet.
Apologies to those who took my advice at the outset!
Ante-post betting can be dangerous. If your horse doesn’t turn up on the day, your cash is lost. However, when you get it right, it can be lucrative, and give you a lot of personal satisfaction. When placing an ante-post bet, you need to weigh up the following:
Is the horse likely to run?
Which of its rivals in the betting are likely to run?
Will the price shorten significantly enough to justify the long term risk?
Is the animal sound enough to rely upon, barring accidents?
You can marshall facts, but the biggest decider will be your experience and, often, your instinct. From time to time, a race is priced which appears to throw up an opportunity as close to ante-post perfection as you’ll get. The last one I recall is the 2013 King George, when Cue Card was available at 12/1 early in the year, despite the fact that the front 4 or 5 in the betting looked doubtful runners. Had Cue Card not gone wrong two out at Kempton, the biggest ante-post bet of my fairly long life would have been landed. Still, a couple of years on, I think I might just have found another one.
Here’s the current betting from Stan James for the Ryanair Chase in March:
- 11/4 Vautour
- 5/1 Cue Card
- 7/1 Don Cossack
- 12/1 Ptit Zig
- 12/1 Valseur Lido
- 12/1 Sprinter Sacre
- 12/1 Vroum Vroum Mag
- 14/1 Simonsig
- 14/1 Sound Investment
- 16/1 Road to Riches
The current intentions of connections, gathered from reading race reports, stable tours, blogs etc suggest that the following are likely to be seen in the Gold Cup, not the Ryanair:
Road to Riches
The QM Champion Chase is the likely destination for Sprinter Sacre, who might be joined there by Simonsig (though I wouldn’t be surprised to see the grey return to hurdling full time).
Valseur Lido could also end up in the Gold Cup as connections appear to believe stamina is his strong suit. Vroum Vroum Mag might run in the Ryanair, but I doubt she’ll have accumulated sufficient tough-it-out experience by March. Also, she has yet to run left-handed outside France (she has an entry at Carlisle at the time of writing, another right-handed track).
Should all of the above pan out (unlikely, but far from impossible), that leaves the Nicholls pair, Ptit Zig and Sound Investment. The latter is a fast-improving handicapper, who could run well. Ptit Zig is a horse bordering on top class. He is also much more likely to run here than in the QM or the Gold Cup. The QM would mean facing a potential superstar in Un De Sceaux as well as a rejuvenated Sprinter Sacre. The Gold Cup would see him taking on arguably the best field in the history of the race, over a trip he’s not at all sure to stay.
Ptit Zig ran Vautour pretty close on Saturday, giving the Gold Cup favourite five pounds, a performance which brought brickbats raining down on the Irish horse rather than bouquets on PZ. I think it will turn out to be very good form indeed. Prior to that, Ptit Zig had won easily in Ireland on his seasonal debut. In the JLT, he was routed and gutted by Vautour, but so was everything else in that field. Ptit Zig does have a Cheltenham victory, having won there last January. Nicholls has always thought a lot of him (he ran him in the 2014 Champion Hurdle). I’ve a feeling Ptit Zig will progress this year much the way the yard’s Dodging Bullets did last year.
Crucially, Ptit Zig is the one horse in the above betting list who looks most likely to turn up in the Ryanair. Nothing is certain, but that risk is more than built into the price of 12/1. If my hypothesis proves correct, he’s unlikely to be bigger than 3/1 on the day.
It’s difficult to convey to you how good a bet I think this is. I could tell you how much I’ve staked, but that would mean little – you’d either go ‘Gulp!’, or ‘That’s peanuts!’, depending on your own staking levels.
This is like trying to explain how much you love somebody…you can describe all the physical attributes and linger over how that person makes you feel, but you can usually tell by the glazed looks that you’re not getting it across.
Like returning to an old holiday video of you and your darling walking in the sand at sunset, I’ve played again and again the recording of Vautour winning the JLT in March. I backed him that day. On the morning of the JLT I backed him for the 2016 Gold Cup, and told anyone else who’d listen to do the same. I was smitten before the race, mesmerised during it and stunned after it.
You must watch it. Preferably in HD if you’ve kept the CH4 recording. See how clever he is at the 4th and how flawless he is at the others, how majestic he is over the last three. Concentrate on his ears, and how he pricks them approaching each fence, then flicks them as he listens to Ruby. Home in on that long stride and the natural power that drives his athleticism in a way he seems to find joyful. Note how he is still pulling coming to three out, where Ruby has to steady him and, once he’s over and spots that turn for home, the zest with which he quickens…observe his rivals, multiple Grade 1 and Grade 2 winners as they come under panicked pressure long before they’re in the straight. Smile at how he romps toward two out and zings over it and sees the last and gallops toward it and pings it as though it’s the first, and at how he pricks his ears once more and responds to Ruby’s just-for-the-sake-of-it urgings as he comes farther and farther clear. Marvel at how much energy he shows afterwards, walking back in…
…and now, forget the doubts about stamina, ignore those who say he might not be as good right-handed, reject protestations that he’s not a midwinter horse, then type http://www.bet365.com into your address bar, click horseracing, scroll down to where it says ‘AntePost Special Doubles’ and grin widely as you take 14/1 about this superstar landing the King GeorgeVI Chase and the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Then, pour a drink, and look forward to Boxing Day.
Hopefully, you’ll take this for the light-hearted piece that it is – though do not doubt that I think the world of this horse. But ante-post betting is a dangerous zone at any time. Vautour has been entered at Ascot on Saturday. He could fall and end his career there. He could step on a nail and miss Kempton. He could go wrong in a dozen different ways. I think 14s is a fantastic price, but please bear in mind the risks other than those that I might be wrong, and don’t bet more than you can afford to lose.