Smad Place the Gold value now at 14/1

question_timeI’ve believed since last March that Vautour will win the Gold Cup, but value cannot be ignored and Smad Place has to be the value bet now at 14s NRNB (Betfair Sportsbook). He has never run a bad race in his life and since his breathing op, the King George has been his only blip – King continues to ‘protest too much’ about abandoning front-running tactics there: I doubt he would have won with them, but he might well have finished much closer.

He has exactly the same attributes as Coneygree had plus experience and, touch wood, soundness. Horses who can get into a rhythm in staying chases have a precious advantage, especially at Cheltenham.

I can only think he is such a big price due to bookies assuming he is a deep ground specialist. But he’s run some fine races on good ground, not least a neck 2nd in the RSA and a 3rd in the World Hurdle (not finishing his races either time, and his breathing might well have been the issue). Since his op, he’s run once on good, thrashing Fingal Bay on his seasonal debut. He then wins a Hennessy easily by 12l off 155, and yesterday, the Betbright in the same fashion and by the same distance off 168.

Why is he 14/1?

About Steeplechasing

Writer, horse-racing fan, cyclist, consultant, entrepreneur. Worked at Aintree, SiS, The Tote, Ladbrokes. Created scoop6. Now run Gamtrain Ltd

Posted on January 31, 2016, in General and tagged , . Bookmark the permalink. 1 Comment.

  1. I have loved Smad Place since the horse sauntered home at Newbury in his novice hurdle days. I have backed him when I thought he could win and left him when things were not just right and the horse owes me nothing. Won for me in The Hennessy and again yesterday (13/2). Jumps like Dessie and loves Cheltenham and Newbury. However, The Cheltenham Gold Cup is a different kettle of fish. Can’t see Smad getting an easy lead there and he will be up against the cream of the crop, with or without Vautour who I do not think will run. Last year I had Don Poli at 10/1 in the RSA and always thought that he would win a Gold Cup, but unlike your recent post, I am leaning towards the other Don now, which is unusual for me because I have been one of the doubters of DC throughout his career. Lots of reasons really, but Smad will do well to reach the frame and I think 4th or 5th is the best he can hope for. Still love him though!

    Rick Poplawski

    Sent from my iPhone

    >

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