Monthly Archives: December 2014
It’s very rare for 3 good value bets to come out of a Gold Cup trial like the Lexus, but Road to Riches looks much smarter than the bookies offering 12s about the Gold Cup – should be half those odds imo.
Surprised too to see 33s available about Sam Winner for the Gold Cup after today – he ran a fine race and jumped superbly bar once.
And to top off the value, those going 20s about Bobs Worth might live to regret it. He’s always been a difficult horse to train, and until the last week or so was a doubtful runner for the Lexus. Wherever the training problems lie, he does not seem to have an obvious defect (to my eye, at least). For example, At Fisher’s Cross has looked very uncomfortable in most of his races over the last two seasons. He has an arthritis problem, and obviously connections do not believe it affects him during races, but it sue as hell looks like he’s in plenty discomfort at times.
Cue Card is another example. Since stopping to nothing in the 2013 King George, he’s been nowhere near the horse he was. He’s another who looks to have something ailing him, and it shows in his racing style. He’s always carried his head a bit high, but he seems to do so even more noticeably since Kempton. I’ve always believed that something ‘went’ that day a year ago, and he’s never recovered from it.
Anyway, I mention those two to draw the comparison with Bobs Worth: he does not race as though something is physically wrong with him, otherwise, I’d avoid him. It would help to know more about the ‘training problems’ Henderson has mentioned, though I doubt he’ll expand on them.
But many seem to have forgotten that Bobs Worth is a triple Festival winner, with a Hennessy and a Lexus also under his girth. Whatever training problems Henderson’s yard faces now, he invariably gets everything right for Cheltenham, and I’ll be taking some of that 20s in anticipation that he’ll get the horse bang on song for the Gold Cup.
Good luck, and a happy 2015.