Medermit the Betfair value at 25/1
You might recall I tipped Medermit for the Charlie Hall where, like all good EW bets, he finished 4th. He’s had just 4 runs since a two-year layoff, and in his past two, he’s shown signs of returning to some kind of decent form. At his best he was just short of top class. Whether he can reach his old level of form again must be doubtful, but there’s sufficient attraction in the price to take the chance he can do well enough to place – and he might just win it.
It’s a race full of questions: Can Silv Conti bounce back from a poor run? Can Menorah build on his Charlie Hall victory (over a trip short of the advertised distance, though he didn’t look like he was stopping). Cue Card…one of my favourite horses of all time, yet I cannot back him until I see a return of the sparkle he showed in this race last year. I don’t recall seeing a horse stop the way he did in the King George, going from a smooth rhythmic gallop to almost a walk without having shown any obvious signs of exhaustion. He didn’t run again that season, after a stress fracture of his pelvis was diagnosed. He was also given a breathing op (which always sows a seed of doubt in my mind about any horse). At Exeter, on his return, he was very heavily bet in the market, but faded rather tamely some way out. I’d love to see him bounce back, but I’m holding off for now.
Dynaste was 2nd in this last year before getting trounced in the KG at Kempton. He’s likable, but I don’t believe he’s top class. Harry Topper faces not just classy opponents, but a need for very soft ground and a lot of luck in jumping.
Double Ross always gives everything, but he too is short of this class, I think. Taquin du Seuil is the fly in the ointment. He’s good, and improving. But this is his third race of the season, and that’s an unusual strategy for one of Jonjo’s festival Grade 1 horses. I thought he’d go very steady with this young horse, so maybe he fancies him very strongly here! I like TDS, but 5/1 seems no value.
I believe Medermit will be staying on as well as anything, and he’s entitled to have improved from the Charlie Hall. 25/1 is generally available and makes plenty appeal EW.