25/1 Weird Al looks the Gold Cup value at this stage

I’d forecast with an 85% degree of confidence that Long Run’s jumping problems will not be cured – ever. He’s a long-backed horse who has trouble arching. When the pressure’s turned on he starts leaving his back legs in a fence – an energy-drain, awkward for his jock and an unseat waiting to happen.

Grands Crus a 7/1 chance races far too freely to see out the Gold Cup, imo.

Synchronised’s form, in all, doesn’t match that of a GC winner. He’d need to have found 20lbs improvement since last season imo – highly unlikely (though not impossible) despite his convincing Lexus win.

Amazingly, we don’t know yet how good KS is this season. He looked to be coming to the end of his tether at Kempton and despite his Cheltenham record, there must be a ? over his ability to get home in March.

Weird Al’s overall form doesn’t match up to that of a GC winner but his first 2 runs of the season were more than creditable (failed to spark at Haydock according to jock) and has a fine record fresh. He bled in last year’s GC (first run on good) but won easily on good at Wetherby this season (never off bridle according to jock). At 25s, he’s the value for me.

Good luck

About Steeplechasing

Writer, horse-racing fan, cyclist, consultant, entrepreneur. Worked at Aintree, SiS, The Tote, Ladbrokes. Created scoop6. Now run Gamtrain Ltd

Posted on January 12, 2012, in Big races, Cheltenham Festival 2012, Value bets. Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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