London Racing Club Ascot preview evening – transcript courtesy of @rob_hayward

London Racing Club Ascot preview evening

6th June 2011

 

Panellists: Tony Calvin, Betfair (TC); Angus McNae, RUK (AN); Nick Smith, Ascot (NS); James Willoughby (JW)

 

Queen Anne

–          (TC) Surprised that Canford Cliffs is currently favourite (6/5), but ‘punters gravitate towards the unknown’.

–          (TC) Potential angle in taking on the market and laying the front two, effectively giving the field at 13/2; plenty of potential improvers in behind, with ~5lb to find on Timeform ratings.

–          (JW) CC ‘doesn’t really stay a mile, but Hughes rides him brilliantly’; Cape Blanco a live threat (Irish Champion Stakes a good formline) could be a back-to-lay play as he’ll have to go from the front.

–          (NS) Rio de la Plata as a potential Godolphin chance, ‘but can’t really see anything troubling the big three’; agree on Cape Blanco chance but believe CC is a worthy favourite as everything geared towards Breeders’ Cup for Goldikova.

 

King’s Stand

–          (JW) Star Witness twice ran Black Caviar to 4l in October/November; unsettled before the start last time out and ?forgiven that run, but some in Aus believe he’s trained off.

–          (NS) Holiday for Kitten a live chance for Wesley Ward: ‘could run well but may not be quite good enough’.

–          (JW) Bridgetown (Todd Fletcher) ‘blazingly fast’, could lead if good draw.

 

St James’s Palace

–          (NS) ‘The only thing that can beat Frankel is Frankel’.

–          (JW) ‘Frankel is one of the most fascinating horses to analyse in my lifetime’; ‘some trainers were convinced after the Guineas that he’s now a tearaway and cannot be restrained’, but if he can run even fractions to 142 ‘he’ll be 10l clear of everything’.

–          (JW) Excelebration ‘wildly impressive’ in German Guineas.

–          (NS) Temps Au Temps likely to be French representative (not Tin Horse)

 

Prince of Wales

–          (NS) Planteur is a ‘solid yardstick but absolutely beatable’; currently a question mark over plans for Workforce as Twice Over ‘will run’, ‘but Khalid Abdulla never afraid to have more than one runner in the race’.

–          (NS) Rewilding very impressive in Dubai but doubts over step down in trip.

–          (TC) So You Think is ‘the hype horse of the meeting’, currently trading at 4/7 but expects it to go off much shorter, perhaps 2/5; Planteur form from Prix Ganay worked out very well with Sarafina, Cape Blanco, Silver Pond in behind.

–          (JW) SYT ‘creates a very unusual impression, very heavy-topped but in running could be 15hh’; ‘very excited about this horse: he’s absolutely extraordinary on Aus form, and will likely end up rated even higher’.

–          (NS) Ballydoyle ‘cannot believe what they have’ in SYT; ‘I’d rather back him than Frankel’; Melbourne Cup 3rd ‘remarkable’ after pulling hard for ¾ of the race.

 

Gold Cup

–          (JW) Rite of Passage ‘a very strong stayer’; project horse in Geordieland, ‘waited on hand and foot’ by Jamie Osborne, trained well since March and could go well fresh at a big price [but TC, ‘he travels well but then doesn’t find anything’].

–          (TC) Duncan, question marks over attitude but on Prix Foy form, and win over Blue Bajan on reappearance should go close – maybe a doubt over stamina.

–          (NS) Interested in Duncan, Askar Tau, Kasbah Bliss (‘knocking on a bit but laid out for this race’)

 

Golden Jubilee

–          (TC) Delegator currently trading favourite at 5/1, but money for Hinchinbrook (16s from 25)

–          (NS) Very unlikely Star Witness will double up here, more likely to be aimed at July Cup

–          (TC) Live outsider in Hitchens, ‘there’s often not much between an improving handicapper and the best of these’, currently trading at 40s.

–          (JW) Elzaam, ‘very good last time out at Newbury, seemed to quicken clear and then find yet another gear’, ‘an exciting horse in a tricky and open race – a great race for punting’.

–          (JW) Also Kingsgate Native, ‘very good down the centre at Haydock’, won this in 2008; ‘Ascot form is a massive plus on the straight track’.

 

Coronation

–          (NS) ‘Misty for Me is the best horse in the race, but not sure she’ll go here’.

–          (TC/JW) Sharnberry a live chance for En Dunlop at a double-figure price.

–          (panel) Also chances for Maqaasid (if she gets a mile), Memory, Barefoot Lady, More Than Real (but Breeders’ Cup the probable target).

 

Coventry

–          (TC) Four of Timeform’s top 15 juveniles trained by Wesley Ward: Italo likely to go here, Gentlemans Code to the Windsor, Judy the Beauty to Queen Mary/Albany, Everyday Brave to Norfolk.

–          (JW) Crown Dependency a live chance here; also Gatepost.

 

Queen Mary

–          (AN) Pyman’s Theory (named after James Pyman’s theory that progeny of Exceed And Excel run well at Ascot) has a chance at 16/1.

–          (TC) Also Judy the Beauty (see above).

 

Handicaps

–          Hoof It in the Wokingham

–          Leviathan in the Hunt Cup

–          Havane Smoker in the Jersey

–          Zain Al Boldan in the Ribblesdale

 

Naps

–          Nick Smith – Star Witness

–          Tony Calvin – Planteur (e/w)

–          Angus McNae – Hoof It [later selected by the panel as their £50 charity bet]

–          James Willoughby – Sharnberry

 

I’m indebted to Rob Hayward for sending me the transcript. You can follow Rob on twitter here

 

About Steeplechasing

Writer, horse-racing fan, cyclist, consultant, entrepreneur. Worked at Aintree, SiS, The Tote, Ladbrokes. Created scoop6. Now run Gamtrain Ltd

Posted on June 7, 2011, in Big races and tagged , . Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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