Racing Post Chase – ‘alternative’ stats: 8 winners from past 10

Results update: Bakbenscher unseated and Fistral Beach pulled up

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If you’d bet every runner who won last time out  in each of the past ten runnings of the Racing Post Chase at Kempton, who started at an SP between 3/1 and 10/1, you’d have  backed 8 winners from 28 bets.

Using Betfair odds that gives  36 points profit – to be precise £100 on each of those results in total stakes of £2,800 and a profit of £3,618.

ROI (Return on Investment) is 229%

People have different ways of interpreting ROI. In my case I do it on the basis that  100% = break even.  So a 90% ROI  would mean a loss of £10 for every £100 staked.

Bear in mind you’d have had two losing years, so basing any system on this type of stat needs to be a long term project.

Todays’ race shows the following horses who’d qualify, should the Racing Post betting forecast prove correct – a vital aspect, so it’s best to bet late when you’re fairly certain of the qualifiers from a price-range perspective:

Fistral beach

Bakbenscher

A couple more LTO winners are hovering on the 12/1 mark so, again, beware and track the  market and remember, qualifiers are based on the SP market, not the Betfair one so you need to monitor both.

Good luck.

Joe

About Steeplechasing

Writer, horse-racing fan, cyclist, consultant, entrepreneur. Worked at Aintree, SiS, The Tote, Ladbrokes. Created scoop6. Now run Gamtrain Ltd

Posted on February 26, 2011, in Uncategorized and tagged . Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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