Montjeu’s son, 200/1: can he win the National?

John Smith’s Grand National* entry, Our Monty has been trading at around 200/1 on Betfair these past few days and that is way too big in my opinion.

UPDATE: Our Monty caught a foot infection and has now been withdrawn from the race:

got into the race and is now (Wednesday) around 75/1 and still good value in my opinion.

A maximum of 40 runners will line up for the big race next Saturday and Our Monty is number 48 on the list so he needs a few withdrawals to get a run.  One horse, Our Monty’s stablemate, Ballytrim has already been taken out of the race (lame) and, sadly, One Cool Cookie - alongside Our Monty in the weights with 10stone 3lbs – suffered a fatal accident on the gallops.

So Our Monty needs six horses above him in the weights to come out at the next declaration stage – noon on Monday 4th April – to be sure of a run. Doubtless there will be some defectors on Monday and, possibly, between Monday and Saturday; the key will be whether those withdrawn are above him in the weights and, therefore, before him in the queue awaiting a chance to run. Four reserves will be chosen and they will wait in the wings in case a horse is withdrawn late in the week.

The good news is that trainer Willie Mullins is reported today as saying the horse will be left in till the final stages to face the ballot for a place in the line-up. If Our Monty is unsuccessful in that ballot, bets on him are void and his supporters get their money returned.

Mr Mullins said in his Racing Post column last weekend that he believed Our Monty had been overlooked and that the horse was very well. If he makes it to the post  on Saturday, it will be Our Monty’s first run since 15th November 2009 when he won the Paddy Power.com Cork Grand National. Here’s his form comment for that victory:

Settled in mid-division on inner, mistake 6 out, smooth progress to track leader entering straight, switched left to stands’ side and disputed 3 out, led next, cruised clear before last, very easily (op 2/1 tchd 11/4

The quote from jockey David Casey after that race was:

“I’d have no problem riding him over any trip. He could make an Irish National horse.”

Our Monty’s next outing after Cork was to be in the Coral Welsh Grand National. He was as short as 8/1 for that before being withdrawn.

I don’t know why the horse has been off so long – I suspect a tendon injury has kept him out.  However, Mr Mullins said last week that the horse is very well and they simply ran out of time in trying to find a prep race for him this season.

Our Monty’s full form panel appears at the foot of this article.  He has won and been placed on the Flat. Over jumps he’s won at 2miles 1furlong and at 3m 4f. He has victories on good to firm ground and on heavy.  Such versatility can be the sign of a very decent horse.

Our Monty joined the Mullins yard in late 2009 and is unbeaten in three runs since, winning each easily. He’s not that big but jumps well.  He fell first time out over fences but in four subsequent ‘chasing runs he has made just one mistake.  The trends boys will tell you that a horse with just five steeplechasing runs is one to avoid due to the experience needed in the National, and there’s plenty evidence to support that theory.  But  I never let trends put me off if the value is there.

Ruby Walsh is understandably committed to The Midnight Club and David Casey rides Arbor Supreme. If Our Monty gets in, he’ll make a  fine ‘spare’ ride and spark a few big dreams for some surprised jockey.

If Our Monty does not get into the National, watch out for him wherever he appears next.  He has an entry in Friday’s John Smith’s Topham Chase and has also been entered for the bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown on April 23rd.

If you can get on at odds above 25/1 for the National with a guarantee of money back if he is balloted out, you will have had value.  Taking the current huge prices available on the betting exchanges (Our Monty can be backed place only at what, in my opinion, should be his win price, around 24/1) is a no-brainer.

Good luck

*I get no payment or reward for anything that features here.  I mention sponsor’s names whenever I can because I believe they deserve support from anyone publishing articles about racing.

Why bother studying festival form? Should we just back Ruby and Mullins, lay AP and PFN for a fat profit?

Figures for the past five festivals suggest a cold-blooded approach to profit might well be best served by backing certain jockeys and trainers and laying others. But is it as straightforward as it seems?

Listed below are the records for jockeys, trainers and Ruby/trainer combinations over the past 5 festivals.

In order the list reads:

number of runners/rides

number of winners

strike rate

return on investment at Betfair odds where 100% = break even

cash profit/loss at £100 unit stakes (Betfair commission omitted)

Ruby Walsh

99

21

21.2%

121.1%

£2,088

…………………………………………

AP McCoy

91

7

7.7%

65.3

£3,158 loss

…………………………………………

Barry Geraghty

79

9

11.4%

138.6%

£3,050

………………………………………….

R Johnson

62

5

8.1%

142.7%

£2,649

……………………………………………

R Thornton

74

8

10.8%

101.7%

£126

…………………………………………….

Willie Mullins

100

12

12%

178.2%

£7,815

…………………………………………….

PF Nicholls

162

17

10.5

73.4%

£4,301 loss

……………………………………………….

NJ Henderson

156

8

5.1%

77.4%

£3,530 loss

………………………………………………..

Alan King

103

8

7.8%

65.9%

£3,512 loss

……………………………………………….

D Pipe

128

7

5.5%

80%

£2,559 loss

……………………………………………….

Walsh/Mullins

30

8

26.7%

135.3%

£1.059

NB this combination ran at a slight loss before the victory of Final Approach last week

…………………………………………………….

Walsh/Nicholls

62

13

21%

127.9%

£1,729

Interesting that the 100 non-Walsh ridden runners for PFN produced just 4 winners and a substantial loss for backers. Also, the 70 (from 100) non-Walsh ridden Mullins horses also managed just 4 winners.

Ruby’s 7 ‘outside rides didn’t provide a winner. Following Ruby when riding for his two main ‘suppliers’ brings this result:

92

21

22.8%

130%

£2,788

Building a ‘system’ on betting Ruby’s mounts would need to be a long-term strategy.  Had you begun following Ruby on day one of the 2007 festival, you would not have gone into profit until he rode American Trilogy (returned at 22.2 on Betfair) to win the County Hurdle in 2009.

Also, layers will be a shade wiser come next March and Ruby’s mounts will get tighter in price though whether they are ‘overbet’ to the extent that AP’s are (on the basis of these figures) is debatable.

Still, AP backers since 2007 would never have reached profit at any time; the bottom of their punting pit, at £100 stakes, being as low as £4,351 in losses.

A judicious combination of backing Ruby and laying AP might prove the best solution.

Good luck