Why bother studying festival form? Should we just back Ruby and Mullins, lay AP and PFN for a fat profit?

Figures for the past five festivals suggest a cold-blooded approach to profit might well be best served by backing certain jockeys and trainers and laying others. But is it as straightforward as it seems?

Listed below are the records for jockeys, trainers and Ruby/trainer combinations over the past 5 festivals.

In order the list reads:

number of runners/rides

number of winners

strike rate

return on investment at Betfair odds where 100% = break even

cash profit/loss at £100 unit stakes (Betfair commission omitted)

Ruby Walsh

99

21

21.2%

121.1%

£2,088

…………………………………………

AP McCoy

91

7

7.7%

65.3

£3,158 loss

…………………………………………

Barry Geraghty

79

9

11.4%

138.6%

£3,050

………………………………………….

R Johnson

62

5

8.1%

142.7%

£2,649

……………………………………………

R Thornton

74

8

10.8%

101.7%

£126

…………………………………………….

Willie Mullins

100

12

12%

178.2%

£7,815

…………………………………………….

PF Nicholls

162

17

10.5

73.4%

£4,301 loss

……………………………………………….

NJ Henderson

156

8

5.1%

77.4%

£3,530 loss

………………………………………………..

Alan King

103

8

7.8%

65.9%

£3,512 loss

……………………………………………….

D Pipe

128

7

5.5%

80%

£2,559 loss

……………………………………………….

Walsh/Mullins

30

8

26.7%

135.3%

£1.059

NB this combination ran at a slight loss before the victory of Final Approach last week

…………………………………………………….

Walsh/Nicholls

62

13

21%

127.9%

£1,729

Interesting that the 100 non-Walsh ridden runners for PFN produced just 4 winners and a substantial loss for backers. Also, the 70 (from 100) non-Walsh ridden Mullins horses also managed just 4 winners.

Ruby’s 7 ‘outside rides didn’t provide a winner. Following Ruby when riding for his two main ‘suppliers’ brings this result:

92

21

22.8%

130%

£2,788

Building a ‘system’ on betting Ruby’s mounts would need to be a long-term strategy.  Had you begun following Ruby on day one of the 2007 festival, you would not have gone into profit until he rode American Trilogy (returned at 22.2 on Betfair) to win the County Hurdle in 2009.

Also, layers will be a shade wiser come next March and Ruby’s mounts will get tighter in price though whether they are ‘overbet’ to the extent that AP’s are (on the basis of these figures) is debatable.

Still, AP backers since 2007 would never have reached profit at any time; the bottom of their punting pit, at £100 stakes, being as low as £4,351 in losses.

A judicious combination of backing Ruby and laying AP might prove the best solution.

Good luck

Albertas Run – 7 from 9 on good ground: can he do the Ryanair double?

UPDATE: OFFICIAL GOING AS REPORTED BY TIMEFORM THIS MORNING IS GOOD TO SOFT, GOOD IN PLACES, SO BEST HOLD FOR JOCKEYS REPORTS

 

Seasonal form figures of 4FP are the type that give a horse a bad name and a big price coming into a Grade One race at the festival. Albertas Run, last year’s Ryanair winner, has had a poor season by his standards; he fell when under pressure against Master Minded at Ascot then pulled up in the King George next time (jockey thought AR had ‘gone wrong’ but the horse finished sound).

An RSA trophy alongside his Ryanair one didn’t prevent the ruthless boys at Timeform giving him the dreaded and thoroughly undeserved squiggle (all they needed to do was check his going requirements).

He has won seven of his nine races over jumps on good ground (Timeform going description used). In the other two he was 2nd to Kauto Star in the King George and 3rd to Madison Du Berlais at Aintree.  Assuming good ground tomorrow as forecast, failure to make the first three would be a career first, yet he can be backed each way at around 6/1.

His Ascot fall was his first ever (he can hit the odd fence) and it might have left its mark mentally, but at 6/1 I am willing to take the chance that his favourite surface and track (won 3 of his 4 races over jumps at Cheltenham) will see him back to his best.

Good luck

22 Celebrity Yankees to choose from in the inaugural Twitter Tipster Trophy charity challenge

We invited the racing professionals on Twitter to send us their best four bets in the form of a Yankee.  The horse nominated first in each group is that person’s nap.

Iain Turner, PR guru for WBX.com and racing manager for horses like Walkon and Mille Chief, very kindly agreed to put up a prize of a charity bet with WBX.com on the John Smith’s Grand National of £250 to the winning tipster – £500 if all 4 horses are successful in the winning Yankee.

So, here they are.  Good luck and thanks to all who entered.

Respected journalist and broadcaster of long standing Mike Vince offers his four:

Hurricane Fly,

So Young

Long Run

I’m Singing the Blues

Four from the man who brought twitter terror to the turf layers with Tenor Nivernais, Richard Hoiles

Tenor Nivernais Fred Winter

Big Bucks Stayers

Big Zeb QM

Habbie Simpson Albert Bartlett

From James Knight, Coral odds guru, racehorse owner and journalist:

Sparky May David Nicholson, Mares Race

Grands Crus World Hurdle

Wymott RSA

Wishfull Thinking Jewson

Head of Communications at the British Horseracing Authority, Paul Struthers offers these . . .

Dunguib Champion Hurdle

Rock Noir Arkle

Kalahari King Ryanair

Get Me Out Of Here County

Simon Rowlands, Timeform’s Head of Research/Handicapping, nominates his four (you’ll note the CAPS on his nap):

TENOR NIVERNAIS Fred Winter, Weds

Cue Card Supreme Novices’, Tues

Time For Rupert RSA Chase, Weds

Shoreacres J Henderson, Fri.

From Simon Walton, founder and MD of ProForm Racing

Big Bucks World Hdle

Peddlers Cross Champion Hdle

Zarkandar Triumph Hdle

Woolcombe Folly Queen Mother

Phil Taylor, jockey’s valet of 25 years standing, sends us these:

Sparky May Mares

Cue Card Supreme

Medermit Arkle

Peddlers Cross Champion Hurdle

From Ian Robinson, syndicate Supremo who has won wtith 92.7% of the horses he’s bought including Gold Cup winner Imperial Commander.

Sprinter Sacre Supreme

First Lieutenant Neptune

Unaccompanied Triumph

Gagewell Flyer Albert Bartlett

A Yankee from the top team at The Racing Forum

Champion Hurdle – Binocular

Supreme Novices – Cue Card

RSA Chase – Time For Rupert

Ryanair – Albertas Run

Robert Gibbs who authors the Becher’s Brook blog protests ‘I’m not a Celeb!’.  He is in my book having tipped half a dozen or so winners in the past few days, among them 66/1, 20/1 10/1. Robert specialises very successfully in the lower grade racing but happily has agreed to offer us this Yankee for the festival:

Maljimar x country

Cannington Brook NH chase (sub: Williams Wishes in the Grand Annual)

Realt Dubh Arkle

The Giant Bolster RSA

The highly esteemed Graham Cunningham of RUK fame and much battle-scarred elsewhere sends us these:

Big Zeb,

Medermit

Gauvain

Grand Crus

Steve Mullington, Aintree fanatic, manic tweeter with a huge Blog following sends us his Yankee:

Ghizao Arkle

Kalahari King Ryanair

L’Ami Cross Country

Oh Crick Grand Annual

Cathryn Fry, freelance racing journalist and linch-pin of the Owners & Trainers reception at Aintree, offers these:

Hurricane Fly CH

Big Zeb QM

Plan A Fred Winter

On The Fringe-Foxhunter

Stats superstar Paul Jones, author of Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide

sent us these:

Medermit

Maljimar

So Young

Dantes Storm

Eight-times champion jumps-jockey, Peter Scudamore tweeted this entry:

Plan A

Khyber Kim

Baby Run

Imperial Commander

Malcolm Boyle odds compiler, author, journalist and current columnist at sportinglife.com and gg.com

Ghizao Arkle

Master Of The Hall RSA

Big Bucks World Hurdle

Imperial Commander Gold Cup

Top blogger Ian Dykes, our Wayward Lad comes into the festival on the back of a 14/1 winner on Saturday - his sole advice

GHIZAO for the Arkle.

PEDDLERS CROSS for the Champion Hurdle

For the Ryanair, POQUELIN

Gold Cup, IMPERIAL COMMANDER

Highly respected trends and stats author and blogger

Ben Aitken, sends his selections:

Loosen My Load Jewson

Divers Centenary Chase

On The Fringe Foxhunters

Sir Des Champs M Pipe Conditional Hdl

Top Flat jock, James Millman has kindly sent us four:

Ghizao Arkle

Dunguib Champion

Kalahari King Ryanair

Grandouet Triumph

Tony Coleman, Paddy Power’s racecourse PRO in the UK and writer for Horse & Hound offers these wine-fuelled selections:

Some Target NH Ch

Great Endeavour Stewart Family Hcap Ch

The Giant Bolster RSA

Junior Kim Muir

Paddy Power’s democratic Studio Team got together to nominate 1 horse each in the following:

Big Bucks

Hurricane Fly

Cue Card

Sizing Europe

Good luck to all entrants and for taking the time to offer these, a big . . .

Eight-times Champ, Peter Scudamore recommends 4 for the festival

Scu is the 16th entrant trying to win a big charity bet from WBX.com with his Yankee recommendation in the first ever Twitter Tipster Trophy Challenge.

You can see Scu’s bet along with all the other entries here. Just scroll down the page to the comments section.

Celebs, you have until midnight to enter and try and win up to £500 for a  charity bet on the John Smith’s Grand National.

How much would Tidal Bay have won with a good Barrister?

Poor old Tidal Bay. If he were human and had a good QC, he’d have won a dozen defamation cases against his detractors.

Many people have a soft spot for him, and I’m one of them. For a ‘villain’ he’s been pretty consistent;  jumps placings:

22/111221/111211/122345/24174-322.

Not out of the first two in his first 17 NH outings. He’s won at least once each season in all bar his first, and only been out of the first 4 twice in his life. he’s won two Grade 1s and two Grade 2s (three of these Graded victories at Cheltenham) His racing style, with that high head carriage, makes me think something is hurting him. Owner Graham Wylie had his back checked last season and they believed they’d found, and fixed, the problem, but, a bit like the ancient pop group Status Quo, he still keeps turning out the same old performances, his version of the 12 bar blues for supporters.

When he finally pops his platinum plates, I wouldn’t be surprised if an autopsy found some physical defect which will leave racing fans swooning and reflecting ‘if only’. One of the best hurdlers of the ’70s, Birds Nest, used to get called all sorts of names because he’d swerve badly across the course near the finish when under maximum pressure. When he died, they opened him up and found he had a serious heart defect.

I doubt Tidal Bay will win the Gold Cup but I’ll bet the roof comes off the stand if he does. Unfortunately, I don’t think his form with Imperial Commander at Haydock can be taken literally. I had the good fortune to speak to Ian Robinson last night – Ian heads the syndicate that owns Imperial Commander – and he told me that  not only did IC suffer a serious cut during the Betfair ‘chase, they found out later that when they thought they’d had him 90% fit for the race, he was just 75% to 80% fit.

The romantic in me would love to see Tidal Bay blunder his way round in his usual fashion, trade at 999 on Betfair two out, and storm up the hill to win by a nose in a four-way photo-finish. I don’t think he will but with old TB, you never, ever know.

Good luck if you’ve backed him.

Twitter Tipster Trophy Celeb charity selections: 13 Yankee entries already in

We already have selections from six of racing’s professionals and the competition does not close till midnight on Monday.

Sign up to Twitter Updates, or email updates (both on right side of this page) for news as  more entries are posted.

You can see current entries by clicking here and scrolling to the comments section at the bottom

Racing pro? Please enter by tweeting me your selections, nap mentioned first, or simply leave them as a comment on this page

Racing professionals, step up to the Twitter Tipster Trophy Challenge for a big charity bet prize

I know that many of you employed in racing, especially journalists and broadcasters, jockeys and trainers, PR reps for the major bookmakers et al, are admired by racing fans and your opinions eagerly sought at Preview Nights and by your Twitter followers.

This blog is now getting around 1,000 views a day and rising so there will be many who’d love to see your best bets for Cheltenham all in the one place.

If you’d like to tweet me your Festival Yankee, or, indeed, leave it below this article as a comment, along with your name, your fans can see your selections and perhaps have a bet themselves.

My good friend Iain Turner, PR Supremo at WBX.com and form-superbrain, has kindly agreed to give the competition winner a free £250 charity bet – (£500  if picking all four winners) – on the John Smith’s Grand National.

I will provide a nice Trophy for the victor and I will keep this article updated with your selections as they come in by posting them in the comments section below.

The competition is open to anyone on Twitter who is professionally involved in racing, including owners. (I will tweet some personal invitations to the pros not following me).

Three rules:

Entries close at midnight on Monday 14th March

Please make the first horse mentioned in your tweet/comment your nap

Winner is the one with highest total return to a £1 stake Yankee on their selections at industry SP.

If no one gets two winners, the best priced nap (first selection mentioned) wins

Good luck, and to those brave enough to enter, a big  . . .

Are you a stats follower? You might think twice after reading this

Stats and trends have become hugely popular in the past few years, especially for festival meetings.  Maths was never my strong point – if I could work out a £2 double at 11/4 and 9/2 I was happy.

So when stats came to the fore in racing, I, like many, welcomed them. They were the S-Plan diet for form students – lose work, gain time painlessly.

The first time I was alerted to the cracks in the stats ceiling was in 2008 when I had a very strong fancy for Captain Cee Bee in the Supreme Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham.

But the stats boys said – “Ignore seven-year-olds, they have a very poor record”.  The Supreme is a race for novice hurdlers aged four and older. I set about digging a bit deeper and found that in the previous ten years, only a handful of seven-year-olds had run in the Supreme.  That blew the stat’s credence, making it a non-stat.  It also helped Captain Cee Bee go off at a longer price so the ‘stat’ was helpful to me in the end.

Another, bound to pop up somewhere before next Friday, is “ignore six-year-olds (Long Run) who have a very poor record in the Gold Cup”  But as the popular Paul Jones, the man who is to stats what Brian Epstein was to The Beatles, tells us in his annual Festival Guide , only three six-year-olds have run in the race since 1963.

My simplistic view is that, unless stats are published with a sample size, treat them with extreme caution.  For a much more comprehensive and learned insight, you will find James Willoughby’s article, enlightening.

Another excellent article from Timeform’s  studious stats guru, Simon Rowlands is here

Good luck with your betting.

NB links are provided for easy access by readers; I do not get paid affiliate fees

Gold Cup, Imperial Commander assessment, with exclusive quote from syndicate head, Ian Robinson

Though the Festival seems to arrive more quickly each year, memories can be very short, especially when a horse has accomplished the ‘unexpected’ .  The 2010 Tote Gold Cup was hyped by ‘racing’ as the Big Showdown between Kauto Star and Denman – all else was ignored.  Kauto and Denman merchandise was produced, (well, racing’s version of merchandise – a few scarves), press releases were issued, the pair’s owners and trainer were recruited  to champion their cause and had the horses been able to talk, I’m sure we’d have seen them on TV slagging each other off and offering to ‘settle it here and now with a gallop down the High St jumping over cars’.

Anyway, Fate is seldom more flighty than when it goes racing and, utterly predictably, it dealt the sport a crushing kick in the PR department in the shape of a big shiny bay gelding called Imperial Commander who jumped  and galloped the Big Two into the Cotswold turf – literally in the case of Kauto Star who took a heavy fall at the fourth last.

Imperial Commander  started third favourite at 15/2.  I didn’t back him, excusing my poor judgement by arguing that he was a tailor-made 21 furlong Cheltenham horse.  That 2m 5f trip at Cheltenham tends to throw up the occasional true specialist like Dublin Flyer.  Imperial Commander had won five times  over that distance at the track, including the 2009 Ryanair, a race that looked his for the taking again in 2010.  I had serious doubts that a horse with such a convincing record at that distance (21 furlong races are comparatively rare; those at Cheltenham demand an unusual blend of speed, jumping prowess and stamina) would have enough left to see out the extra half mile of the Gold Cup.

But his owners, the Our Friends in the North syndicate, took the view that one Ryanair trophy on the sideboard was enough and they might not get another chance at the glory pot – the Gold Cup.  A word here for the syndicate head Ian Robinson, a Geordie businessman now living in a hamlet near Carlisle.  In my view, Ian did more for racing than all the PR hype surrounding the Big Two, by posting regularly on the Betfair forum.

Unlike many owners, Ian Robinson knows a lot about horses, and will talk for hours about their physiology.  On Mastermind, his specialist subject would be The Breathing Apparatus of the Thoroughbred.   Like all his equine  purchases (over 90% of them have won), Imperial Commander was bought because Ian had researched the hell out of his bloodline looking for breathing weaknesses in the Commander’s ancestors. Anyway, doubtless Ian will write his own book on that some day.

For the past three years or so Ian has been remarkably open and honest in his posts on the Betfair ante-post and Cheltenham forums – handling daft questions and silly attacks with dignity, grace and humour.  He tipped Imperial Commander to  win the Paddy Power in 2009 – what kind of cert was he that day with 10 stone 6lbs? From then on he kept all his readers updated on the wellbeing and chances of IC and his other horses. A non-word-mincer, he made clear his serious concerns about running the horse at Aintree after his Gold Cup win “I’d much rather he was munching grass in an Irish field”.

But his ever-optimistic trainer Nigel Twiston Davies reported IC ‘bouncing’ at home and Our Friends in the North let the big horse take his chance . The Mildmay track at Aintree (a completely different layout from the Grand National Course) does not suit long-striding gallopers like Imperial Commander and Denman, who took a horrible fall in the race in 2009. IC fared little better than Denman, cobbling together a poor round of jumping, terminated by catapulting Paddy Brennan into orbit over Liverpool after hitting  the sixth from home.

Still, the horse came back safe and Ian Robinson and his Friends learned another lesson.  You can be pretty sure Imperial Commander won’t be seen again on the tight Mildmay Course though I think he’d be fascinating contender in the John Smiths Grand National.

On March 18th, Imperial Commander will go to Cheltenham with a scar on the tendon of his near-fore (front left leg).  Hopefully the wound sealed by the scar tissue won’t cost the big horse his second Gold Cup. The injury was the result of an over-reach (when a horse’s rear foot catches a front foot in a scissor action during a race and the aluminium shoe cuts the flesh) in his first race of the season, the Betfair Chase at Haydock.

He won that day despite the deep cut and the pudding-like ground, but he has not raced since.  He missed the King George VI Chase, possibly a blessing in disguise, as Kempton is almost as tight as Aintree’s Mildmay and I think Imperial Commander can get flustered going right-handed (galloping clockwise), though Ian Robinson believes that theory unproven.

On the positive side, Imperial Commander has shown his best form when fresh and well rested. He is unbeaten at Cheltenham, has won two Grade One races there and, although ten-years-old, he has relatively few  miles on his ‘clock’. Prone to the occasional jumping error elsewhere, he has been almost flawless at Cheltenham.  Given the focus on Denman and Kauto last year, Imperial Commander almost certainly did not get the credit he deserved for pulverizing Denman with a display of fine fencing, tactical speed, stamina, determination and sheer power.

Perhaps the most telling aspect of Imperial Commander ‘s 2010 victory was the horse he beat into second.  2008 Gold Cup winner Denman, a noted warrior who usually grinds opponents into submission with his relentless gallop and never-say-die attitude, fought a prolonged battle with Imperial Commander throughout the second circuit, only to see Imperial Commander steadily pull away in the straight and win by seven lengths.

A repeat of that performance will, I think, see the big horse retain his Gold Cup, a feat achieved by only six horses since the first running in 1924.

What others say about Imperial Commander

Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies  

“On his first racecourse gallop at Warwick, (returning after the serious cut he suffered in the Betfair ‘chase), he worked with a young horse of mine called Oscar Magic.  Paddy was less than impressed but he didn’t know at the time that much about Oscar Magic who is a smart Bumper horse who could have a big chance in the Champion Bumper.

Paddy was much more impressed after the Kempton gallop and came back with a big smile..  I genuinely couldn’t be happier with him.  I have studied his Gold Cup rivals, and there isn’t one I have in our sights.

It’s more exciting when you do something you’re not supposed to (talking about winning last year), If he’d finished third nobody would have said anything, but if he finishes third this year I’ll have a lot of explaining to do. But he won’t finish third, he’ll win.”

Ian Robinson, head of the Our Friends in the North Syndicate, owners of IC  said today:

“It has been a different preparation as we didn’t have the King George as a springboard. His layoff after the Betfair left us with a standing rather than a running start, which is why it was unfair to criticise his efforts at Warwick. The horse that he worked with at Warwick (Oscar Magic) was ready to run and scooted up in a Sandown bumper a few days later, whereas he was still work in progress. The key point was always the Kempton gallop and Paddy said he felt as good as last year, if he produces the same performance as last year that will be good enough. Since then he has really come into himself, looks a picture and is doing everything and more that is asked of him. He will have a couple of schooling sessions but other than that we are counting the days”

Ruby Walsh

“Paddy Brennan is a pessimist and even he is bullish – you’ve got to take that into account. I’d love Kauto to win as I think he’s the best horse ever, but Imperial Commander is the one to beat”

Ruby on some key Festival races – written account – from Paddy Power preview night

I’m afraid I didn’t catch this webcast till I saw a tweet from Paddy Power and linked in after it started.  But I got a few races by hastily recording the audio (you can listen to Ruby’s Audio Clips by clicking the link under Categories on the lower right of this page).

I’ve reproduced what Ruby said, pretty much word for word.  Listening closely, you realise how carefully he chooses his words despite speaking pretty fast.  He’s very sharp indeed.  There was a fair bit of banter with MC, panel and audience and Ruby was way quicker mentally then any of them.

I have not used quote marks unless someone other than Ruby was speaking - in this case, just the MC.

I’ve laid races out in the order they were discussed on the night. I missed the World Hurdle but, asked for his nap of the meeting, Ruby chose Big Buck’s.

Bumper

For in running  punters, Allure of Illusion has unbelievable pace and gears and when they pass through the wings of the second last, he’ll be trading odds on – whether he gets up the hill or not I don’t know but you can back him at 10s before the race.

QM Champion Chase

Paul is very sweet on Master Minded (MM) – hard to pick one to beat him.  Golden Silver (GS) beat Big Zeb last time and I think if GS had jumped the last at Leopardstown he’d have beaten him that day too.  The issue with GS is he can put in a short one.  If you could rely on him to be brave and bold and stand at the wings, he’s an unbelievable price but he has a habit of going short and getting himself out of the race by doing that, putting in short, safe jumps.

If he was just a bit braver, he’d have a real shout but he can be cowardly and with the second last now being in the home straight on the old track at Cheltenham, jumping will be essential in the last half mile, and that would be your only worry with GS.

Can’t have Sizing Europe, Captain Cee Bee misses the odd fence,  Woolcombe Folly has handicap form and there’s no comparison between that and grade one form.  He’s skimpy at 7/1. It’s because of the time he ran – time means nothing; it’s what you beat that counts.

Somersby ran MM close last time but the more I look at this the more I think Master Minded will win.

Gold Cup

Imperial Commander (IC) worked well at Kempton and the vibes from the camp are good. Even Paddy Brennan, who’s a pessimist, is quite bullish  - you have to take that on board.

Long Run was brilliant in the King George but for my money he’s ground-dependent more so than track-dependent.  His Paddy Power was on good, Sun Alliance was on good, all his French form is on soft.  He can maintain a serious gallop on soft; he’s ground-dependent.

Denman’s had a wind op. Ran well in the Hennessy and must have some sort of a chance as has Kauto.  I’d love Kauto to win a third Gold Cup as I think he’s the greatest horse of all time.

Kempes bolted in in the Irish Hennessey, he’ll love good ground and should run a good race. Pandorama looks ground-dependent but Noel Meade thinks the sun shines out of his rear end, he really fancies him.  Midnight Chase would be too slow, Tidal Bay’s not good enough, Neptune Collonges is a bit old . . . I hope Kauto can win it – he’s not as fast as he used to be but he’s in good nick and looks value at 13/2, but for me Imperial Commander is the one to beat.

Grand Annual

Nightmare to ride in.  They go faster than the Champion Chase and they’re worse horses . . . I don’t know, maybe Pepe Simo if the ground was quick, but if you’re having a bet in this race you really have a problem.

Triumph

The Irish are probably a weak bunch and Dermot’s filly (Unaccompanied) is by far the best.  Zarkandar was good at Kempton.  I wouldn’t be too worried  about his attitude; he was very coltish, a mean, sour horse when we got him, and since being gelded he’s a different horse.  He took a bit of time getting over his castration but he’s much more pleasant now. A Media Luz is a bit free.  I really like Sam Winner.  I was quite impressed with him early in the year.  He’s a wonderful jumper, a real stayer, a chaser in the making and at 10/1 I think he’s a great price EW. I wouldn’t put you off backing him.

RSA

Mikael.  I don’t know what race he runs in.  He schooled really well round Leopardstown with Quel Esprit, but to get Willie Mullins to make a decision two weeks before the event is not going to happen, but Mikael is working well, looks well.

I honestly think Time For Rupert is beatable.  He was second to Big Buck’s (BB) last year but there was no second.  BB absolutely pissed in, so something had to be second and it was him. Jessies Dream is a fair horse on his day.  Arguable whether he’s have beaten Mikael at Fairyhouse or not.

Aiteenthirtythree is improving but I think the bit of value in the race is Master of the  Hall.  He was very good in the Reynoldstown and at 14/1 EW I think he’s a real good bet. Boston’s Angel lacks a gear. If the real Mikael D’Haguenet turns up, well, . .you never know.

Neptune

So Young’s been very impressive in his two starts. I schooled Rock on Ruby this morning and he went well though I can’t see how he can turn the form around with Bobs Worth though there’s a rumour Bobs Worth will go for the three-miler. Day of a Lifetime was very impressive in his maiden hurdle. It’s wide open.

You should always go by form and if you do that it’s going to be hard to beat Oscars Well.  He has the form in the book and it’s rock solid.  He beat all the top Irish Novices at Leopardstown last time, and he’s hard to look beyond at 4/1.

Mares

Quevega’s in great form and she’s been working very well.  I suppose the danger is Our Girl Salley but I can’t understand why a novice is taking on Quevega off levels when she could turn up in the Neptune or The Supreme getting her mare’s allowance.  Doesn’t make any sense to me.  She won’t be a novice next year but this is the race she’s going for.  Quevega will be hard to beat, she’s in great form, grade one winner, Willie will have her trained to the day.

“Would she be your nap of the meeting, Ruby?”

. . . there was a fair pause then  . . .

I wouldn’t think so.  She’s a great shout but I wouldn’t call her my nap.

Stewart Family Spinal Research H’cap Chase

A horse of  Tony Martin’s caught my eye the other day at Leopardstown, staying on in a 2m 2f hurdle race, a horse called Saddlers Storm.  He was favourite for last year’s Irish National when he unseated at the last.  If he gets in, I’d think he’ll have  a chance.

Champion Hurdle

Menorah should have been giving 4lbs to Silvianaco Conti at Cheltenham instead of getting 4lbs, so he was really 8lbs well in.  Oscar Whisky wants a bit further, Mille Chief wasn’t overly impressive last time. Khyber Kim needs to improve on his best to win.  It’s wide open.  I’d love to see Hurricane Fly win it.  But I don’t know.  If you have a hunch go with it.  It’s going to be the race of the meeting.

If Overturn doesn’t run, there’ll be no pace. I can’t see AP making the running on Binocular, Peddlers Cross was handy in the Fighting Fifth but they didn’t go that fast.  Menorah won’t make it, Hurricane Fly certainly won’t make it . . . Dunguib, they went no gallop in The Supreme and I can’t see him making it.  You need to wager into your bet that there’ll be no pace if Overturn doesn’t run and that means it will be all about speed in which case I’d favour Hurricane Fly, but I don’t have any strong feelings about the race other than it’ll be a great race to watch.

Albert Bartlett

Raptor would have a shout at around 20/1

And that was all I caught.  I hope you get  winner or two out of it and if you’re ever asked for your ideal dinner guests, I’d stick Ruby at the top of the list (probably wouldn’t eat much, either!).